References

Beeknoo N, Jones R The demography myth - how demographic forecasting underestimates hospital admissions, and creates the illusion that fewer hospital beds or community-based bed equivalents will be required in the future. British Journal of Medicine and Medical Research. 2016; 19:(2)1-27

Beeknoo N, Jones R Information asymmetry in financial forecasting within healthcare and simple methods to overcome this deficiency. British Journal of Medicine and Medical Research. 2017; 20:(4)1-12

Jones R Are emergency admissions contagious?. BJHCM. 2015; 21:(5)227-35

Jones R Recurring Outbreaks of an Infection Apparently Targeting Immune Function, and Consequent Unprecedented Growth in Medical Admission and Costs in the United Kingdom: A Review. British Journal of Medicine and Medical Research. 2015; 6:(8)735-70 https://doi.org/10.9734/BJMMR/2015/14845

Jones R Simulated rectangular wave infectious-like events replicate the diversity of time-profiles observed in real-world running 12 month totals of admissions or deaths. FGNAMB. 2015; 1:(3)78-9 https://doi.org/10.15761/FGNAMB.1000114

Jones R A ‘fatal’ flaw in hospital mortality models: How spatiotemporal variation in all-cause mortality invalidates hidden assumptions in the models. FGNAMB. 2015; 1:(3)82-96 https://doi.org/10.15761/FGNAMB.1000116

Jones R Deaths in English Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA) show patterns of very large shifts indicative of a novel recurring infectious event. SMU Medical Journal. 2016; 3:(2)23-36

Jones R A presumed infectious event in England and Wales during 2014 and 2015 leading to higher deaths in those with neurological and other disorders. Journal of Neuroinfectious Diseases. 2016; 7:(2) https://doi.org/10.4172/2314-7326.1000213

Jones R Unusual trends in NHS staff sickness absence. BJHCM. 2016; 22:(4)239-40

Jones R A regular series of unexpected and large increases in total deaths (all-cause mortality) for male and female residents of mid super output areas (MSOA) in England and Wales: How high level analysis can miss the contribution from complex small-area spatial spread of a presumed infectious agent. Fractal Geometry and Nonlinear Analysis in Medicine and Biology. 2016; 2:(2)1-13

Jones R Rising emergency admissions in the UK and the elephant in the room. Epidemiology (Sunnyvale): Open Access. 2016; 6:(4) https://doi.org/10.4172/2161-1165.1000261

Jones R Is cytomegalovirus involved in recurring periods of higher than expected death and medical admissions, occurring as clustered outbreaks in the northern and southern hemispheres?. British Journal of Medicine and Medical Research. 2016; 11:(2)1-31 https://doi.org/10.9734/BJMMR/2016/20062

Jones R Outbreaks of a Presumed Infectious Agent Associated with Changes in Fertility, Stillbirth, Congenital Abnormalities and the Gender Ratio at Birth. British Journal of Medicine and Medical Research. 2017; 20:(8)1-36 https://doi.org/10.9734/BJMMR/2017/32372

Jones R Year-to-year variation in deaths in English Output Areas (OA), and the interaction between a presumed infectious agent and influenza in 2015. SMU Medical Journal. 2017; 4:(2)

Jones R Role of social group and gender in outbreaks of a novel agent leading to increased deaths, with insights into higher international deaths in 2015. Fractal Geometry and Nonlinear Analysis in Medicine and Biology. 2017; 3:(1)

paramedic practice
NHS
pressures
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NHS

Anticipated NHS demand in 2017/18

02 June 2017
Opinion
02 June 2017
Volume 9 · Issue 6

In the February issue of this journal I explained why 2016/17 was always going to be an annus horribilis. However, the situation is far more nuanced than just ‘everyone was overwhelmed’. This is presented in Figure 1, which shows the deaths in 2016/17 versus those in 2015/16 in local authority areas across England and Wales. An identical situation is observed in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

On this occasion, deaths (all-cause mortality) are used as an indicator of end-of-life related demand. Each additional death seems to be associated with around 10 additional medical admissions (Beeknoo and Jones, 2016); hence, higher ambulance journeys, plus unexpected demand on social services lead to bed-blocking.

Figure 1 shows an apparently confusing situation where most local government areas were high in 2016/17; however, whatever happened was characterised by a huge range. Hence a -2.9% shift for Inner London down to -9.2% in Newham, through to +11.6% for Gloucestershire and even +16.8% in Stroud.

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