Anticipated NHS demand in 2017/18

Deaths: indicator of demandOn this occasion, deaths (all-cause mortality) are used as an indicator of end-of-life related demand. Each additional death seems to be associated with around 10 additional medical admissions (Beeknoo and Jones, 2016); hence, higher ambulance journeys, plus unexpected demand on social services lead to bed-blocking.Figure 1 shows an apparently confusing situation where most local government areas were high in 2016/17; however, whatever happened was characterised by a huge range. Hence a -2.9% shift for Inner London down to -9.2% in Newham, through to +11.6% for Gloucestershire and even +16.8% in Stroud.

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