Statistical Advisor, Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting, Leominster, UK
While the ageing population has been increasing health service demand over many years, we need to understand how the less well recognised role of nearness to death may have been acting to influence...
So how have NHS England (NHSE) and NHS Improvement (NHSI) responded to these innovative ideas? As far as I can determine, they haven't. In fact, no one from either organisation has ever talked with me...
To this end, Figure 1 presents a calculation of excess winter mortality (EWM) for England and three local authorities in Berkshire. EWM is defined as the average deaths in the 4 months from December...
NHS demand is therefore highly sensitive to the volatility in deaths. The sad fact is that deaths are highly volatile and that the magnitude of this volatility is location-specific (Jones, 2012). This...
Clearly, some areas have more deaths than others, and Figure 1 shows the distribution of deaths per 1000 population across local government areas in the UK. Data are for 2017 and are from the Office...
So, what have deaths to do with capacity pressures? There is a very simple answer: the nearness to death effect. The nearness to death effect has been documented for around four decades and shows that...
